Market Insight - September 25, 2026
Pet Exports to the U.S. Turned Positive. The Price Didn't.
August data gave pet exports their first positive U.S. month under the new tariff structure. Volume came back. Price did not.
First, the numbers
Customs figures released September 21 put pet food exports at 38,000 tonnes, up 29.6% year on year, with a value of USD 143 million, up 23.0%. Exports to the U.S. turned positive year on year at +16.2% — the first full month under the structure that took effect in late July.
One caveat belongs next to those figures: part of the U.S. increase rests on a low base last August. The direction is real; the size is flattered.
Now the number that matters
The average export price fell 10.0% year on year, to RMB 25,500 per tonne — USD 3,752 a tonne, down 5.1%. Value growth ran well below volume growth. Volume is doing the work; price is not following.
Germany was up 10.9% and the UK up 16.8%. Europe is the faster-growing destination this year, and that is worth watching in its own right.
The tariff side needs a precise reading
The 10% global surcharge expired in July and was replaced by a new Section 301 tariff — the outcome of a forced-labour investigation — adding 12.5% on China. For most pet lines it stacks on the original 25% from the 2018 lists: 37.5% before any MFN base duty.
Two details matter. It is a replacement tariff, and the U.S. side has committed that replacement tariffs on China will not exceed 20% — so the current 12.5% has stated room above it. It also stacks fully with the old Section 301, while Section 232 tariffs do not stack with it.
What this means for suppliers
The U.S. door reopened on volume, not on margin. Raw material costs are up, RMB appreciation shrinks dollar invoices, and unit prices are still falling. Three pressures running against the same number.
The lines that hold through this pattern are the ones that can show where every cost sits — material, freight, MFN, each tariff layer — instead of quoting one blended number. A blended price is comfortable in August and indefensible in November.
What this means for buyers
Low prices now come with a question attached: is the supplier cutting into quality and capacity, or into a cushion that no longer exists? Falling unit prices have a floor, and floors arrive suddenly.
Ask how a quote is built before the order, not after the shipment. A supplier who can walk you through material, conversion, freight and each duty layer is a supplier who still knows where the money goes.
Three things worth doing on either side of the table
- Write the tariff stack into the quotation, line by line. The 12.5% has declared headroom; a quote that ignores that is a quote with an expiry date nobody agreed to.
- Treat the U.S. upturn as an order-timing window, not a pricing window. Volume is back; margin is not. Lock quantities, not rates.
- Watch Europe. Germany and the UK are growing faster than the U.S. A portfolio weighted to a single market is carrying policy risk that another market currently does not.
The orders came back. The price has not. Telling those two apart is the work of this quarter.
FAQ: reading the pet export numbers
Did the new Section 301 tariff replace the 10% global surcharge?
Yes. The 10% global surcharge expired in July and was replaced by a new Section 301 tariff arising from a forced-labour investigation, which adds 12.5% on China. It is a replacement tariff, not an additional layer sitting on top of the surcharge.
Does the 12.5% Section 301 tariff stack with the 2018 lists?
For most pet lines, yes. The 12.5% stacks fully on the original 25% from the 2018 Section 301 lists, which puts the combined rate at 37.5% before any MFN base duty is applied. Section 232 tariffs, by contrast, do not stack with it.
Can the 12.5% rate go higher?
The U.S. side has committed that replacement tariffs on China will not exceed 20%, so the current 12.5% carries stated room above it. That headroom is the reason a quotation which ignores it has an expiry date nobody agreed to.
Why did U.S. volumes rise while export prices fell?
Two effects are working together. Exports to the U.S. turned positive year on year at +16.2% in August, the first full month under the structure that took effect in late July, and part of that rests on a low base a year earlier. At the same time the average export price fell 10.0% year on year, to RMB 25,500 per tonne. The direction is real; the size is flattered.
Where this sits in a sourcing programme
Tariff layers change which market a programme should be built for, but they do not change what has to be verified at the factory: material grade, compliance testing, packing and carton configuration. Those are the same disciplines whether the container leaves for Los Angeles or Hamburg.
MASA Development International has sourced pet products from China since 2008 — cat trees, beds, apparel, bags, toys and accessories — alongside home textile, ceramics, glass and lifestyle goods. Send us the line you are planning for the U.S. or Europe and we will come back with a cost breakdown that separates material, freight and each tariff layer.